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Gareji vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
11/27/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 35Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gareji76%
×Draw16%
Chikhura Sachkhere8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
2.41
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.65

Gareji creates 271% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.44

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.61

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
92%
Gareji or Chikhura Sachkhere
84%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
24%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
53%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
91%
Gareji 2+ goals
69%
Gareji 3+ goals
43%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
48%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
14%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
90%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.41

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gareji scores more
76%
level
16%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
8%

Gareji at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Gareji 8–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Gareji beat Chikhura Sachkhere 8-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni in Sagarejo.