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Gárdony vs MTK Budapest II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
5/19/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gárdony41%
×Draw22%
MTK Budapest II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
1.80
MTK Budapest II
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
MTK Budapest II
1.36

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
MTK Budapest II
1.91

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

MTK Budapest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
63%
Gárdony or MTK Budapest II
78%
Draw or MTK Budapest II
59%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
22%
MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
83%
Gárdony 2+ goals
54%
Gárdony 3+ goals
27%
MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
82%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
51%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
53%
MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.80

MTK Budapest II attack 1.36 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gárdony scores more
41%
level
22%
MTK Budapest II scores more
37%

Gárdony at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gárdony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gárdony 3–2 MTK Budapest II

Gárdony beat MTK Budapest II 3-2 in NB III - Southwest on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.