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Gárdony vs Mohácsi TE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mohácsi TE
Mohácsi TE
8/2/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 2Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gárdony48%
×Draw23%
Mohácsi TE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
1.84
Mohácsi TE
1.39

Gárdony creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Mohácsi TE
0.73

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Mohácsi TE
2.00

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Mohácsi TE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
71%
Gárdony or Mohácsi TE
77%
Draw or Mohácsi TE
52%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
26%
Mohácsi TE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
84%
Gárdony 2+ goals
55%
Gárdony 3+ goals
28%
Mohácsi TE 1+ goals
75%
Mohácsi TE 2+ goals
40%
Mohácsi TE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
62%
Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gárdony scores more
48%
level
23%
Mohácsi TE scores more
29%

Gárdony at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gárdony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gárdony 6–1 Mohácsi TE

Gárdony beat Mohácsi TE 6-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.