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Gárdony vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
5 – 3
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
10/10/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 11Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gárdony41%
×Draw21%
Gyirmót II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
1.94
Gyirmót II
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
63%
Gárdony or Gyirmót II
79%
Draw or Gyirmót II
59%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
22%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
86%
Gárdony 2+ goals
58%
Gárdony 3+ goals
30%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
84%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
54%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
53%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gárdony scores more
41%
level
21%
Gyirmót II scores more
37%

Gárdony at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gárdony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gárdony vs Gyirmót II

Gárdony beat Gyirmót II 5-3 in NB III - Southwest on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.