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Gárdony vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
2 – 1
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
11/29/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 20Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gárdony37%
×Draw23%
Érdi VSE40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
1.63
Érdi VSE
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 96 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
60%
Gárdony or Érdi VSE
77%
Draw or Érdi VSE
63%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
18%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
80%
Gárdony 2+ goals
48%
Gárdony 3+ goals
22%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
82%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
51%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
48%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gárdony scores more
37%
level
23%
Érdi VSE scores more
40%

Érdi VSE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gárdony vs Érdi VSE

Gárdony beat Érdi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.