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Gárdony vs Dunaújváros-Pálhalma — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
11/18/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 16Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gárdony57%
×Draw20%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
2.28
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.39

Gárdony creates 64% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.73

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
2.87

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
77%
Gárdony or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
80%
Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
43%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
36%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
90%
Gárdony 2+ goals
66%
Gárdony 3+ goals
39%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
75%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
40%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
71%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gárdony scores more
57%
level
20%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
23%

Gárdony at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gárdony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gárdony 2–5 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma beat Gárdony 5-2 in NB III - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.