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Gárdony vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
6 – 0
Andráshida
Andráshida
5/22/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 37Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gárdony72%
×Draw14%
Andráshida13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
3.16
Andráshida
1.33

Gárdony creates 138% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
87%
Gárdony or Andráshida
86%
Draw or Andráshida
28%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
53%
Andráshida wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
96%
Gárdony 2+ goals
82%
Gárdony 3+ goals
59%
Andráshida 1+ goals
74%
Andráshida 2+ goals
38%
Andráshida 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
85%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.16

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gárdony scores more
72%
level
14%
Andráshida scores more
13%

Gárdony at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gárdony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gárdony vs Andráshida

Gárdony beat Andráshida 6-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.