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Gardnersville vs Paynesville — LFA First Division 2020

Gardnersville
Gardnersville
FT
5 – 3
HT: 5 – 0
Paynesville
Paynesville
11/27/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gardnersville44%
×Draw22%
Paynesville34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gardnersville
1.96
Paynesville
1.72

Gardnersville creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Gardnersville
2.23
Paynesville
1.52

allows per match

Gardnersville
1.92
Paynesville
1.70

finishing

Gardnersville+0.00on par
Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardnersville ↓

Paynesville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gardnersville or draw
66%
Gardnersville or Paynesville
78%
Draw or Paynesville
56%

Winning margin

Gardnersville wins by 2+
24%
Paynesville wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gardnersville 1+ goals
86%
Gardnersville 2+ goals
58%
Gardnersville 3+ goals
31%
Paynesville 1+ goals
82%
Paynesville 2+ goals
51%
Paynesville 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gardnersville (draw refunded)
56%
Paynesville (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardnersville at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardnersville attack 2.23 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.96

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Gardnersville defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gardnersville scores more
44%
level
22%
Paynesville scores more
34%

Gardnersville at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gardnersville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Gardnersville 5–3 Paynesville

Gardnersville beat Paynesville 5-3 in LFA First Division on November 27, 2025.