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Gardnersville vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Gardnersville
Gardnersville
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
11/6/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gardnersville38%
×Draw22%
LPRC Oilers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gardnersville
1.73
LPRC Oilers
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

creates per match

Gardnersville
2.23
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Gardnersville
1.92
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Gardnersville+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardnersville ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gardnersville or draw
61%
Gardnersville or LPRC Oilers
78%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
62%

Winning margin

Gardnersville wins by 2+
20%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gardnersville 1+ goals
82%
Gardnersville 2+ goals
52%
Gardnersville 3+ goals
25%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
83%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
52%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gardnersville (draw refunded)
49%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardnersville at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardnersville attack 2.23 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.73

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Gardnersville defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gardnersville scores more
38%
level
22%
LPRC Oilers scores more
39%

LPRC Oilers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gardnersville vs LPRC Oilers

Gardnersville beat LPRC Oilers 3-1 in LFA First Division on November 6, 2025.