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Gardnersville vs Downtown — LFA First Division 2020

Gardnersville
Gardnersville
FT
1 – 1
Downtown
Downtown
5/23/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gardnersville47%
×Draw21%
Downtown31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gardnersville
2.08
Downtown
1.67

Gardnersville creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gardnersville
2.23
Downtown
1.43

allows per match

Gardnersville
1.92
Downtown
1.93

finishing

Gardnersville+0.00on par
Downtown+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardnersville ↓

Downtown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gardnersville or draw
69%
Gardnersville or Downtown
79%
Draw or Downtown
53%

Winning margin

Gardnersville wins by 2+
27%
Downtown wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gardnersville 1+ goals
87%
Gardnersville 2+ goals
61%
Gardnersville 3+ goals
34%
Downtown 1+ goals
81%
Downtown 2+ goals
50%
Downtown 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gardnersville (draw refunded)
60%
Downtown (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardnersville at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Downtown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardnersville attack 2.23 + Downtown defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Downtown attack 1.43 + Gardnersville defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gardnersville scores more
47%
level
21%
Downtown scores more
31%

Gardnersville at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gardnersville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gardnersville vs Downtown

Gardnersville and Downtown drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on May 23, 2026.