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Seoul E-Land FC vs Seongnam FC — K League 2 2017

Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
8/6/2017K League 2K League 2 · K-League Challenge - Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Seoul E-Land FC40%
×Draw27%
Seongnam FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul E-Land FC
1.33
Seongnam FC
1.17

Seoul E-Land FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 67 away

creates per match

Seoul E-Land FC
1.38
Seongnam FC
1.03

allows per match

Seoul E-Land FC
1.30
Seongnam FC
1.28

finishing

Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par
Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul E-Land FC ↓

Seongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Seoul E-Land FC or draw
67%
Seoul E-Land FC or Seongnam FC
73%
Draw or Seongnam FC
60%

Winning margin

Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
18%
Seongnam FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
74%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
38%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
15%
Seongnam FC 1+ goals
69%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
33%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
55%
Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul E-Land FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul E-Land FC attack 1.38 + Seongnam FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Seongnam FC attack 1.03 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Seoul E-Land FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Seongnam FC scores more
33%

Seoul E-Land FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Seoul E-Land FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Seoul E-Land FC 1–1 Seongnam FC

Seoul E-Land FC and Seongnam FC drew 1-1 in K League 2 on August 6, 2017.