Garde Nationale 1–2 Tidjikja: Result & Stats

Garde Nationale

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tidjikja

2/14/2022

Premier League · Round 12Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Garde Nationale30%

×Draw28%

Tidjikja42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garde NationaleExpected goals in this matchTidjikja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.27

Garde Nationale

1.02

Tidjikja

1.27

Tidjikja creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Garde Nationale

1.08

Tidjikja

1.08

allows per match

Garde Nationale

1.45

Tidjikja

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Tidjikja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

Tidjikja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw

58%

Garde Nationale or Tidjikja

72%

Draw or Tidjikja

70%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+

11%

Tidjikja wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals

64%

Garde Nationale 2+ goals

27%

Garde Nationale 3+ goals

8%

Tidjikja 1+ goals

72%

Tidjikja 2+ goals

36%

Tidjikja 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)

41%

Tidjikja (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Tidjikja away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + Tidjikja defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tidjikja attack 1.08 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Garde Nationale scores more

30%

level

28%

Tidjikja scores more

42%

Tidjikja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tidjikja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff