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Garde Nationale vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SNIM
SNIM
2/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Garde Nationale33%
×Draw29%
SNIM39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garde Nationale
1.06
SNIM
1.18

SNIM creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 78 away

creates per match

Garde Nationale
1.08
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

Garde Nationale
1.45
SNIM
1.05

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw
61%
Garde Nationale or SNIM
71%
Draw or SNIM
67%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+
13%
SNIM wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals
65%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
29%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
9%
SNIM 1+ goals
69%
SNIM 2+ goals
33%
SNIM 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
46%
SNIM (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

SNIM attack 0.91 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Garde Nationale scores more
33%
level
29%
SNIM scores more
39%

SNIM at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garde Nationale vs SNIM

Garde Nationale and SNIM drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.