Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Garde Nationale vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
FT
5 – 0
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
5/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Garde Nationale61%
×Draw20%
Gourel Sangue19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garde Nationale
2.16
Gourel Sangue
1.11

Garde Nationale creates 95% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 13 away

creates per match

Garde Nationale
1.08
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Garde Nationale
1.45
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw
81%
Garde Nationale or Gourel Sangue
80%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
39%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+
38%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals
88%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
63%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
36%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
67%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
30%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
77%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.16

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Garde Nationale scores more
61%
level
20%
Gourel Sangue scores more
19%

Garde Nationale at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garde Nationale vs Gourel Sangue

Garde Nationale beat Gourel Sangue 5-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.