Garde Nationale 0–1 Concorde: Result & Stats

Garde Nationale

FT

0 – 1

Concorde

5/3/2022

Premier League · Round 20Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Garde Nationale33%

×Draw27%

Concorde39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garde NationaleExpected goals in this matchConcorde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.27

Garde Nationale

1.15

Concorde

1.27

Concorde creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Garde Nationale

1.08

Concorde

1.08

allows per match

Garde Nationale

1.45

Concorde

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Concorde+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

Concorde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw

61%

Garde Nationale or Concorde

73%

Draw or Concorde

67%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+

14%

Concorde wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals

68%

Garde Nationale 2+ goals

32%

Garde Nationale 3+ goals

11%

Concorde 1+ goals

72%

Concorde 2+ goals

36%

Concorde 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)

46%

Concorde (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Concorde away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + Concorde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Concorde attack 1.08 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Garde Nationale scores more

33%

level

27%

Concorde scores more

39%

Concorde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concorde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff