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Garde Nationale vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Premier League 2020

Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
4/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Garde Nationale16%
×Draw23%
Al Hilal Omdurman60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garde Nationale
0.76
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.73

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 128% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Garde Nationale
1.08
Al Hilal Omdurman
2.00

allows per match

Garde Nationale
1.45
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.44

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw
40%
Garde Nationale or Al Hilal Omdurman
77%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
84%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+
5%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals
53%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
18%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
4%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
82%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
52%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
21%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.76

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.00 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Garde Nationale scores more
16%
level
23%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
60%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Garde Nationale 0–5 Al Hilal Omdurman

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Garde Nationale 5-0 in Premier League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.