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Gardabani vs Zestafoni — Liga 3 2024

Gardabani
Gardabani
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Zestafoni
Zestafoni
11/7/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gardabani55%
×Draw23%
Zestafoni23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gardabani
1.88
Zestafoni
1.13

Gardabani creates 66% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gardabani
1.68
Zestafoni
0.87

allows per match

Gardabani
1.38
Zestafoni
2.07

finishing

Gardabani+0.00on par
Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardabani ↓

Zestafoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gardabani or draw
77%
Gardabani or Zestafoni
77%
Draw or Zestafoni
45%

Winning margin

Gardabani wins by 2+
31%
Zestafoni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gardabani 1+ goals
85%
Gardabani 2+ goals
56%
Gardabani 3+ goals
29%
Zestafoni 1+ goals
68%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
31%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gardabani (draw refunded)
71%
Zestafoni (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardabani at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardabani attack 1.68 + Zestafoni defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Zestafoni attack 0.87 + Gardabani defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gardabani scores more
55%
level
23%
Zestafoni scores more
23%

Gardabani at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gardabani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Gardabani 2–2 Zestafoni

Gardabani and Zestafoni drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on November 7, 2024.