Gardabani 1–2 Meshakhte: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Gardabani

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Meshakhte

9/12/2024

Liga 3 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gardabani34%

×Draw25%

Meshakhte41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GardabaniExpected goals in this matchMeshakhte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.49

Gardabani

1.34

Meshakhte

1.49

Meshakhte creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

1.60

1.38

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gardabani

1.68

Meshakhte

1.60

allows per match

Gardabani

1.38

Meshakhte

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gardabani+0.00on par

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardabani ↓

Meshakhte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gardabani or draw

59%

Gardabani or Meshakhte

75%

Draw or Meshakhte

66%

Winning margin

Gardabani wins by 2+

15%

Meshakhte wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gardabani 1+ goals

74%

Gardabani 2+ goals

39%

Gardabani 3+ goals

15%

Meshakhte 1+ goals

77%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

44%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gardabani (draw refunded)

46%

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardabani at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Meshakhte away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardabani attack 1.68 + Meshakhte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Meshakhte attack 1.60 + Gardabani defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gardabani scores more

34%

level

25%

Meshakhte scores more

41%

Meshakhte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff