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Gardabani vs Merani Tbilisi — Liga 3 2024

Gardabani
Gardabani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
4/2/2026Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Gardabani45%
×Draw25%
Merani Tbilisi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gardabani
1.60
Merani Tbilisi
1.27

Gardabani creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gardabani
1.68
Merani Tbilisi
1.16

allows per match

Gardabani
1.38
Merani Tbilisi
1.53

finishing

Gardabani+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardabani ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gardabani or draw
70%
Gardabani or Merani Tbilisi
75%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
55%

Winning margin

Gardabani wins by 2+
23%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gardabani 1+ goals
80%
Gardabani 2+ goals
47%
Gardabani 3+ goals
22%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
72%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
36%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gardabani (draw refunded)
60%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardabani at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardabani attack 1.68 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.16 + Gardabani defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gardabani scores more
45%
level
25%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
30%

Gardabani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gardabani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Gardabani 0–3 Merani Tbilisi

Merani Tbilisi beat Gardabani 3-0 in Liga 3 on April 2, 2026.