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Garching vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
11/5/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Garching24%
×Draw23%
Schwaben Augsburg53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.13
Schwaben Augsburg
1.81

Schwaben Augsburg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Garching
1.97
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Garching or draw
47%
Garching or Schwaben Augsburg
77%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
76%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
9%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
68%
Garching 2+ goals
31%
Garching 3+ goals
11%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
84%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
54%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
31%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Garching scores more
24%
level
23%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
53%

Schwaben Augsburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs Schwaben Augsburg

Schwaben Augsburg beat Garching 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.