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Garching vs Schalding-Heining — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
9/14/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 11Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Garching42%
×Draw23%
Schalding-Heining34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.69
Schalding-Heining
1.50

Garching creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 49 away

creates per match

Garching
0.80
Schalding-Heining
0.90

allows per match

Garching
2.10
Schalding-Heining
2.57

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Schalding-Heining →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Garching or draw
66%
Garching or Schalding-Heining
77%
Draw or Schalding-Heining
58%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
22%
Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
82%
Garching 2+ goals
50%
Garching 3+ goals
24%
Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
78%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
44%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
55%
Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.80 + Schalding-Heining defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Schalding-Heining attack 0.90 + Garching defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Garching scores more
42%
level
23%
Schalding-Heining scores more
34%

Garching at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Garching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs Schalding-Heining

Garching and Schalding-Heining drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.