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Garching vs Rain / Lech — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
7/30/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Garching35%
×Draw24%
Rain / Lech40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.42
Rain / Lech
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
Rain / Lech
1.12

allows per match

Garching
1.97
Rain / Lech
1.91

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Rain / Lech+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Rain / Lech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Garching or draw
60%
Garching or Rain / Lech
76%
Draw or Rain / Lech
65%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
16%
Rain / Lech wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
76%
Garching 2+ goals
41%
Garching 3+ goals
17%
Rain / Lech 1+ goals
79%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
45%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
47%
Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Rain / Lech away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + Rain / Lech defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rain / Lech attack 1.12 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Garching scores more
35%
level
24%
Rain / Lech scores more
40%

Rain / Lech at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rain / Lech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs Rain / Lech

Rain / Lech beat Garching 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.