Garching vs Rain / Lech — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Garching35%
Rain / Lech39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 9 home / 50 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Garching ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Garching at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches
Rain / Lech away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Garching attack 0.78 + Rain / Lech defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.32
Rain / Lech attack 0.84 + Garching defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Rain / Lech at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Rain / Lech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FC Schweinfurt 05
Nürnberg II
Bayreuth
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Eichstätt
Greuther Fürth II
Buchbach
Aubstadt
Augsburg II
Wacker Burghausen
IllertissenRain / Lech
Heimstetten
Schalding-Heining
1860 Rosenheim
MemmingenGarchingIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Garching host Rain / Lech on Saturday, 17 October 2020 at 12:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Bayern 2019/2020 season.
Garching vs Rain / Lech — Match Preview
Garching face Rain / Lech on October 17, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Bayern fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Garching host Rain / Lech at Stadion am See.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.