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Garching vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
7/13/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 1Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Garching22%
×Draw22%
Nürnberg II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.12
Nürnberg II
1.93

Nürnberg II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 86 away

creates per match

Garching
0.80
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

Garching
2.10
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Garching or draw
44%
Garching or Nürnberg II
78%
Draw or Nürnberg II
78%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
8%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
67%
Garching 2+ goals
31%
Garching 3+ goals
10%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
85%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
57%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
28%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.80 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Garching defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Garching scores more
22%
level
22%
Nürnberg II scores more
56%

Nürnberg II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Garching 1–3 Nürnberg II

Nürnberg II beat Garching 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.