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Garching vs Kirchheimer SC — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
10/15/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 16Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garching45%
×Draw24%
Kirchheimer SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.65
Kirchheimer SC
1.34

Garching creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
Kirchheimer SC
0.71

allows per match

Garching
1.97
Kirchheimer SC
2.35

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Kirchheimer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Garching or draw
69%
Garching or Kirchheimer SC
76%
Draw or Kirchheimer SC
55%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
23%
Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
81%
Garching 2+ goals
49%
Garching 3+ goals
23%
Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
74%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
39%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
59%
Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Garching scores more
45%
level
24%
Kirchheimer SC scores more
31%

Garching at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Garching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Garching 2–2 Kirchheimer SC

Garching and Kirchheimer SC drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.