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Garching vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
PST
12:00
Illertissen
Illertissen
5/23/2020Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 34Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Garching26%
×Draw24%
Illertissen51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.19
Illertissen
1.76

Illertissen creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 96 away

creates per match

Garching
0.78
Illertissen
1.52

allows per match

Garching
2.00
Illertissen
1.59

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Garching or draw
49%
Garching or Illertissen
76%
Draw or Illertissen
74%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
10%
Illertissen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
70%
Garching 2+ goals
33%
Garching 3+ goals
12%
Illertissen 1+ goals
83%
Illertissen 2+ goals
52%
Illertissen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
34%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.78 + Illertissen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Illertissen attack 1.52 + Garching defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Garching scores more
26%
level
24%
Illertissen scores more
51%

Illertissen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Illertissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Garching host Illertissen

May 23, 2020: Garching take on Illertissen in Regionalliga - Bayern. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Garching host Illertissen at Stadion am See.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.