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Garching vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
8/30/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Garching27%
×Draw22%
FC Schweinfurt 0551%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.34
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.93

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 68 away

creates per match

Garching
0.80
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.75

allows per match

Garching
2.10
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.88

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Garching or draw
49%
Garching or FC Schweinfurt 05
78%
Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05
73%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
11%
FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
74%
Garching 2+ goals
39%
Garching 3+ goals
15%
FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
85%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
57%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
34%
FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.80 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.75 + Garching defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Garching scores more
27%
level
22%
FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
51%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs FC Schweinfurt 05

FC Schweinfurt 05 beat Garching 4-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.