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Garching vs Eichstätt — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
11/23/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 21Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Garching29%
×Draw24%
Eichstätt47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.29
Eichstätt
1.69

Eichstätt creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 68 away

creates per match

Garching
0.80
Eichstätt
1.28

allows per match

Garching
2.10
Eichstätt
1.78

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Garching or draw
53%
Garching or Eichstätt
76%
Draw or Eichstätt
71%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
12%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
72%
Garching 2+ goals
37%
Garching 3+ goals
14%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
82%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
50%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
39%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.80 + Eichstätt defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Eichstätt attack 1.28 + Garching defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Garching scores more
29%
level
24%
Eichstätt scores more
47%

Eichstätt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs Eichstätt

Eichstätt beat Garching 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.