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Garbarnia Kraków vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
3/9/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 23Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków26%
×Draw27%
Tychy 7147%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.98
Tychy 71
1.41

Tychy 71 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
53%
Garbarnia Kraków or Tychy 71
73%
Draw or Tychy 71
74%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
62%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
26%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
8%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
76%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
41%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
36%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
26%
level
27%
Tychy 71 scores more
47%

Tychy 71 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Garbarnia Kraków 0–3 Tychy 71

Tychy 71 beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-0 in I Liga on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).