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Garbarnia Kraków vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
6/12/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 38Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków46%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.61
SKRA Częstochowa
1.23

Garbarnia Kraków creates 31% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 61 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
71%
Garbarnia Kraków or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
54%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
24%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
80%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
48%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
22%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
71%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
35%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
61%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
46%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
29%

Garbarnia Kraków at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs SKRA Częstochowa

Garbarnia Kraków and SKRA Częstochowa drew 4-4 in II Liga - East on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.