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Garbarnia Kraków vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
11/3/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 17Stadion Stal (Rzeszów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków24%
×Draw27%
Puszcza Niepołomice48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.91
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.40

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
52%
Garbarnia Kraków or Puszcza Niepołomice
73%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
76%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
8%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
60%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
75%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
41%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
34%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.91

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
24%
level
27%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
48%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Stal (Rzeszów).