Garbarnia Kraków 0–2 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Podbeskidzie

12/1/2018

I Liga · Round 21Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków26%

×Draw26%

Podbeskidzie47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.45

Garbarnia Kraków

1.01

Podbeskidzie

1.45

Podbeskidzie creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

0.47

creates per match

1.31

1.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

0.47

Podbeskidzie

1.31

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.59

Podbeskidzie

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

53%

Garbarnia Kraków or Podbeskidzie

74%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

74%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

10%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

64%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

27%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

8%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

77%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

42%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

36%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.01

Podbeskidzie attack 1.31 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

26%

level

26%

Podbeskidzie scores more

47%

Podbeskidzie at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff