Garbarnia Kraków 2–1 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Motor Lublin

4/21/2021

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków40%

×Draw26%

Motor Lublin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.27

Garbarnia Kraków

1.41

Motor Lublin

1.27

Garbarnia Kraków creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

1.57

creates per match

1.13

1.42

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.57

Motor Lublin

1.13

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.42

Motor Lublin

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

66%

Garbarnia Kraków or Motor Lublin

74%

Draw or Motor Lublin

60%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

19%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

76%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

41%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

17%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

72%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

36%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

54%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

40%

level

26%

Motor Lublin scores more

34%

Garbarnia Kraków at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff