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Garbarnia Kraków vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
2/29/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków53%
×Draw22%
Legionovia Legionowo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.93
Legionovia Legionowo
1.24

Garbarnia Kraków creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
76%
Garbarnia Kraków or Legionovia Legionowo
78%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
47%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
31%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
85%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
57%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
30%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
71%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
35%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
69%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
53%
level
22%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
24%

Garbarnia Kraków at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Legionovia Legionowo

Garbarnia Kraków beat Legionovia Legionowo 3-1 in II Liga - East on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.