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Garbarnia Kraków vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
8/18/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 5Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków20%
×Draw26%
ŁKS Łódź54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.80
ŁKS Łódź
1.51

ŁKS Łódź creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.43

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
ŁKS Łódź
1.14

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
46%
Garbarnia Kraków or ŁKS Łódź
74%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
80%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
6%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
55%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
19%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
5%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
78%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
44%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
27%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.80

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
20%
level
26%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
54%

ŁKS Łódź at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Garbarnia Kraków 3 – 2 ŁKS Łódź

Garbarnia Kraków beat ŁKS Łódź 3-2 in I Liga on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).