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Garbarnia Kraków vs Gryf Wejherowo — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
10/19/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków68%
×Draw18%
Gryf Wejherowo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
2.38
Gryf Wejherowo
0.97

Garbarnia Kraków creates 145% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Gryf Wejherowo
0.53

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Gryf Wejherowo
3.18

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
86%
Garbarnia Kraków or Gryf Wejherowo
82%
Draw or Gryf Wejherowo
32%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
46%
Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
91%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
68%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
42%
Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
62%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
25%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
83%
Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.38

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.53 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
68%
level
18%
Gryf Wejherowo scores more
14%

Garbarnia Kraków at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 1–1 Gryf Wejherowo

Garbarnia Kraków and Gryf Wejherowo drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.