Garbarnia Kraków 4–0 Górnik Polkowice

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

6/7/2020

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków38%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Garbarnia Kraków

1.44

Górnik Polkowice

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

1.57

creates per match

1.40

1.42

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.57

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.42

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

63%

Garbarnia Kraków or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

62%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

18%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

76%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

42%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

18%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

76%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

41%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

51%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

38%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

37%

Garbarnia Kraków at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff