Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Garbarnia Kraków vs Górnik Łęczna — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
7/27/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków37%
×Draw25%
Górnik Łęczna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.43
Górnik Łęczna
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Górnik Łęczna
1.47

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Górnik Łęczna
1.29

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
62%
Garbarnia Kraków or Górnik Łęczna
75%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
63%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
76%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
42%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
42%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
50%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.47 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
37%
level
25%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
38%

Górnik Łęczna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 0–1 Górnik Łęczna

Górnik Łęczna beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in II Liga - East on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.