Garbarnia Kraków 0–0 Czarni Połaniec

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Czarni Połaniec

9/9/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków48%

×Draw23%

Czarni Połaniec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchCzarni Połaniec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.41

Garbarnia Kraków

1.86

Czarni Połaniec

1.41

Garbarnia Kraków creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

1.71

creates per match

1.34

1.47

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.71

Czarni Połaniec

1.34

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

Czarni Połaniec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Czarni Połaniec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

71%

Garbarnia Kraków or Czarni Połaniec

77%

Draw or Czarni Połaniec

52%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

27%

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

84%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

55%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

28%

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

76%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

41%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

62%

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

48%

level

23%

Czarni Połaniec scores more

29%

Garbarnia Kraków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff