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Garbarnia Kraków vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
10/6/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 13Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków29%
×Draw28%
Chrobry Głogów43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.02
Chrobry Głogów
1.31

Chrobry Głogów creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Chrobry Głogów
1.04

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Chrobry Głogów
1.57

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
57%
Garbarnia Kraków or Chrobry Głogów
72%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
71%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
11%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
64%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
27%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
8%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
73%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
40%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
29%
level
28%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
43%

Chrobry Głogów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Garbarnia Kraków 0 – 1 Chrobry Głogów

Chrobry Głogów beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).