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Garbarnia Kraków vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
5/15/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków33%
×Draw24%
Avia Świdnik44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Avia Świdnik
1.68

Avia Świdnik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.71
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.47
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
56%
Garbarnia Kraków or Avia Świdnik
76%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
67%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
76%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
41%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
17%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
81%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
50%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
43%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
33%
level
24%
Avia Świdnik scores more
44%

Avia Świdnik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Garbarnia Kraków 1–1 Avia Świdnik

Garbarnia Kraków and Avia Świdnik drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.