GAP Connah S Quay FC 4–2 Prishtina: Result & Stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Prishtina

C. Morris 82' (pen)

J. Insall 57', 3'

G. Horan 47'

E. Krasniqi 36', 29'

7/29/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPark Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC50%

×Draw26%

Prishtina24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAP Connah S Quay FCExpected goals in this matchPrishtina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.50

Prishtina

0.96

GAP Connah S Quay FC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.00

Prishtina

0.67

allows per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.25

Prishtina

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par

Prishtina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAP Connah S Quay FC ↓

Prishtina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw

76%

GAP Connah S Quay FC or Prishtina

74%

Draw or Prishtina

50%

Winning margin

GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+

25%

Prishtina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals

78%

GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals

44%

GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals

19%

Prishtina 1+ goals

62%

Prishtina 2+ goals

25%

Prishtina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)

67%

Prishtina (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Prishtina away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 1.00 + Prishtina defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Prishtina attack 0.67 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Prishtina scores more

24%

GAP Connah S Quay FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GAP Connah S Quay FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

23'

29'

36'

37'

45+2'

B. Tolaj← E. Krasniqi

46'

A. Williams← J. Disney

47'

57'

72'

74'

82'

C. MorrisPenalty

86'

88'

89'

90+2'

90+4'

GAP4-4-2

Prishtina4-3-3

77

John

15

Mankenda

11

▼

Hoti

10

⚽2

▼

Krasniqi

7

Boshnjaku

8

▼

4

28

2

3

12

1

14

17

2

▼

Disney

5

⚽

Horan

7

▼

Mullan

12

Poole

8

⚽

Morris

23

Edwards

10

⚽2

Insall

9

Wilde

Manager: A. Morrison

46'▲A. Williams←▼J. Disney

74'▲J. Davies←▼J. Mullan

GAP Connah S Quay FC substitutes

21Williams11Davies18Bibby53Owen24Calderbank-Park36Evans6Harrison

Manager: Z. Ramadani

45+2'▲B. Tolaj←▼E. Krasniqi

72'▲G. Muça←▼X. Shabani

90+4'▲K. Vangjeli←▼M. Hoti

Prishtina substitutes

21Tolaj22Muça32Vangjeli27Prapashtica9Kryeziu35Haxho88Lilaj