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GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Barry Town — League #110 2026

GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barry Town
Barry Town
4/13/2025League #110League #110 · Relegation Round - 9Essity Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC60%
×Draw21%
Barry Town19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.05
Barry Town
1.06

GAP Connah S Quay FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.15
Barry Town
1.12

allows per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.00
Barry Town
1.95

finishing

GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par
Barry Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAP Connah S Quay FC ↓

Barry Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw
81%
GAP Connah S Quay FC or Barry Town
79%
Draw or Barry Town
40%

Winning margin

GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+
36%
Barry Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals
87%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals
61%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals
33%
Barry Town 1+ goals
65%
Barry Town 2+ goals
29%
Barry Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)
76%
Barry Town (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Barry Town away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.95 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 2.15 + Barry Town defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.05

Barry Town attack 1.12 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more
60%
level
21%
Barry Town scores more
19%

GAP Connah S Quay FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GAP Connah S Quay FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Barry Town

Barry Town beat GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-0 in League #110 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Essity Stadium in Y Fflint / Flint, Flintshire.