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Ganshoren vs Union Namur — League #148 2026

Ganshoren
Ganshoren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Namur
Union Namur
10/9/2022League #148League #148 · ACFF - 7Complexe Sportif de Ganshoren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ganshoren23%
×Draw22%
Union Namur55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ganshoren
1.21
Union Namur
1.96

Union Namur creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ganshoren
1.75
Union Namur
2.67

allows per match

Ganshoren
1.25
Union Namur
0.67

finishing

Ganshoren+0.00on par
Union Namur+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ganshoren ↓

Union Namur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ganshoren or draw
45%
Ganshoren or Union Namur
78%
Draw or Union Namur
77%

Winning margin

Ganshoren wins by 2+
9%
Union Namur wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Ganshoren 1+ goals
70%
Ganshoren 2+ goals
34%
Ganshoren 3+ goals
12%
Union Namur 1+ goals
86%
Union Namur 2+ goals
58%
Union Namur 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ganshoren (draw refunded)
30%
Union Namur (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ganshoren at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Union Namur away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ganshoren attack 1.75 + Union Namur defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Union Namur attack 2.67 + Ganshoren defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ganshoren scores more
23%
level
22%
Union Namur scores more
55%

Union Namur at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Namur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ganshoren vs Union Namur

Ganshoren beat Union Namur 2-1 in League #148 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Ganshoren in Ganshoren.