Gangwon FC 2–1 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Gangwon FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Shenhua

Goo Bon-Cheul 63'

Hong Chul 54'

J. Teixeira 45'

9/16/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 1Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gangwon FC49%

×Draw26%

Shanghai Shenhua26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gangwon FCExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.03

Gangwon FC

1.53

Shanghai Shenhua

1.03

Gangwon FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Gangwon FC

1.40

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Gangwon FC

1.40

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangwon FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gangwon FC or draw

74%

Gangwon FC or Shanghai Shenhua

74%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

51%

Winning margin

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

25%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

78%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

45%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

20%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

64%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

28%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

66%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangwon FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangwon FC attack 1.40 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Gangwon FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gangwon FC scores more

49%

level

26%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

26%

Gangwon FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gangwon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Hong Chul

Gangwon FC · D

8.9

Match Events

45'

J. Teixeira↳ Gao Tianyi

46'

Fulangxisi Aidi← Zhu Chenjie

54'

Seo Min-Woo← Yun Il-Lok

54'

Kim Dae-Won← Kim Kang-Guk

54'

Mo Jae-Hyeon← Choe Byeong-Chan

54'

Hong Chul↳ Goo Bon-Cheul

63'

Goo Bon-Cheul

70'

Yu Hanchao← J. Teixeira

70'

Wang Haijian← Gao Tianyi

72'

Kim Gun-Hee← Vitor Gabriel

78'

Hanchao Yu

79'

Han Jiawen← Liu Chengyu

82'

Aidi Fulang Xisi

85'

Y. Kang← Goo Bon-Cheul

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GangwonShanghai

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots2

1Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots2

3On Target2

5Off Target0

3Blocked0

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

521Total Passes300

454Accurate Passes214

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0