Gangwon FC 2–2 Daejeon Citizen: Result & Stats

Gangwon FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Daejeon Citizen

7/19/2025

K League 1 · Round 22Chuncheon Songam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Gangwon FC40%

×Draw25%

Daejeon Citizen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gangwon FCExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.39

Gangwon FC

1.48

Daejeon Citizen

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 67 away

1.47

creates per match

1.52

1.26

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Gangwon FC

1.47

Daejeon Citizen

1.52

allows per match

Gangwon FC

1.26

Daejeon Citizen

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangwon FC ↓

Daejeon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gangwon FC or draw

64%

Gangwon FC or Daejeon Citizen

75%

Draw or Daejeon Citizen

60%

Winning margin

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

19%

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

77%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

43%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

19%

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

75%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

40%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

53%

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangwon FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 156 matches

Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangwon FC attack 1.47 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + Gangwon FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gangwon FC scores more

40%

level

25%

Daejeon Citizen scores more

36%

Gangwon FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gangwon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff