Gangneung City 4–0 Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Gangneung City

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

3/10/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundGangneung Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gangneung City73%

×Draw16%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gangneung CityExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.94

Gangneung City

2.63

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

0.94

Gangneung City creates 180% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.43

creates per match

1.17

0.71

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Gangneung City

2.43

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.17

allows per match

Gangneung City

0.71

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gangneung City+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangneung City ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gangneung City or draw

89%

Gangneung City or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

84%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

27%

Winning margin

Gangneung City wins by 2+

51%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

Team goals

Gangneung City 1+ goals

93%

Gangneung City 2+ goals

73%

Gangneung City 3+ goals

48%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

61%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

24%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gangneung City (draw refunded)

87%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gangneung City at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gangneung City attack 2.43 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.63

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.17 + Gangneung City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gangneung City scores more

73%

level

16%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

11%

Gangneung City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gangneung City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff