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Gangneung City vs Gyeongju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Gangneung City
Gangneung City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
6/21/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 5Gangneung Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gangneung City49%
×Draw26%
Gyeongju Citizen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gangneung City
1.52
Gyeongju Citizen
1.01

Gangneung City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gangneung City
1.36
Gyeongju Citizen
0.83

allows per match

Gangneung City
1.19
Gyeongju Citizen
1.67

finishing

Gangneung City+0.00on par
Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangneung City ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gangneung City or draw
75%
Gangneung City or Gyeongju Citizen
74%
Draw or Gyeongju Citizen
51%

Winning margin

Gangneung City wins by 2+
25%
Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gangneung City 1+ goals
78%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
45%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
20%
Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
64%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
27%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gangneung City (draw refunded)
66%
Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangneung City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangneung City attack 1.36 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Gangneung City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gangneung City scores more
49%
level
26%
Gyeongju Citizen scores more
25%

Gangneung City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gangneung City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gangneung City vs Gyeongju Citizen

Gangneung City beat Gyeongju Citizen 2-0 in K3 League on June 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gangneung Stadium in Gangneung.