Gandzasar 1–2 Van: Result & Stats | Premier League

Gandzasar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Van

O. Faye 36'

K. Drammeh 40'

U. Ajibona 17'

5/12/2025

Premier League · Round 20Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gandzasar37%

×Draw27%

Van37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GandzasarExpected goals in this matchVan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

Gandzasar

1.28

Van

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

0.96

creates per match

0.85

1.71

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Gandzasar

0.96

Van

0.85

allows per match

Gandzasar

1.71

Van

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par

Van+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Van →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw

63%

Gandzasar or Van

73%

Draw or Van

63%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+

16%

Van wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals

72%

Gandzasar 2+ goals

37%

Gandzasar 3+ goals

14%

Van 1+ goals

72%

Van 2+ goals

37%

Van 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)

50%

Van (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Van away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 0.96 + Van defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Van attack 0.85 + Gandzasar defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gandzasar scores more

37%

level

27%

Van scores more

37%

Gandzasar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

33'

36'

40'

46'

Y. Gareginyan← I. Okonkwo

61'

E. Gyasi← L. Merrill

61'

S. Koné← G. Paronyan

61'

A. Sadoyan← U. Ajibona

67'

I. Opoku

70'

M. Fanye Toure

71'

M. Odeyinka← M. Touré

71'

R. Hakobyan← S. Grigoryan

82'

V. Hayrapetyan← T. Sawada

88'

Gevorg Matevosyan← I. Opoku

88'

A. Mizyed← O. Emmanuel

88'

Y. Matyukhin← K. Drammeh

90+1'

G. Matevosyan

Gandzasar

Van

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Drammeh

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Barseghyan

61'▲E. Gyasi←▼L. Merrill

61'▲S. Koné←▼G. Paronyan

82'▲V. Hayrapetyan←▼T. Sawada

88'▲Gevorg Matevosyan←▼I. Opoku

88'▲A. Mizyed←▼O. Emmanuel

Gandzasar substitutes

GyasiKonéHayrapetyanMatevosyanMizyedKirakosyanKocharyanTatintsyanBarseghyanVopanyanMuradyanManukyan

Manager: V. Gevorgyan

46'▲Y. Gareginyan←▼I. Okonkwo

61'▲A. Sadoyan←▼U. Ajibona

71'▲M. Odeyinka←▼M. Touré

71'▲R. Hakobyan←▼S. Grigoryan

88'▲Y. Matyukhin←▼K. Drammeh

Van substitutes

GareginyanSadoyanOdeyinkaHakobyanMatyukhinAyvazovIdrisovSargsyanAkilaVardanyanVoskanyanFarayola

Premier League: Gandzasar 1–2 Van

Van beat Gandzasar 2-1 in Premier League on May 12, 2025.

Goals: U. Ajibona (17'), O. Faye (36'), K. Drammeh (40').

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.

Gandzasar vs Van — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Gandzasar 1–2 Van