Gandzasar 1–3 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Gandzasar

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Pyunik Yerevan

S. Vakulenko 27' (OG)

M. Vareika 90+8'

J. Bopesu 68'

Y. Otubanjo 66'

4/12/2025

Premier League · Round 26Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gandzasar20%

×Draw24%

Pyunik Yerevan57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GandzasarExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.73

Gandzasar

0.91

Pyunik Yerevan

1.73

Pyunik Yerevan creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 107 away

0.96

creates per match

1.75

1.71

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Gandzasar

0.96

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

allows per match

Gandzasar

1.71

Pyunik Yerevan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw

43%

Gandzasar or Pyunik Yerevan

76%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

80%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+

6%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals

60%

Gandzasar 2+ goals

23%

Gandzasar 3+ goals

6%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

82%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

52%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)

26%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 0.96 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Gandzasar defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gandzasar scores more

20%

level

24%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

57%

Pyunik Yerevan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. VakulenkoOwn goal

46'

E. Gyasi← G. Paronyan

46'

S. Koné← E. Soghomonyan

46'

S. Deblé← A. Grigoryan

46'

Y. Otubanjo← T. Dzhikia

59'

Mimito Biai← B. Alcéus

66'

Y. Otubanjo

68'

J. Bopesu

71'

D. Barseghyan← S. Koné

71'

M. Vareika← E. Malakyan

76'

Vagner Goncalves

79'

A. Adeyemi← V. Hayrapetyan

90+3'

M. Kovalenko← V. Gonçalves

90+8'

M. Vareika

Gandzasar

Pyunik

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Barseghyan

46'▲E. Gyasi←▼G. Paronyan

46'▲S. Koné←▼E. Soghomonyan

71'▲D. Barseghyan←▼S. Koné

79'▲A. Adeyemi←▼V. Hayrapetyan

Gandzasar substitutes

GyasiKonéBarseghyanAdeyemiKocharyanTatintsyanMatevosyanMatevosyanNdidiZakaryanSawadaManukyan

Manager: E. Melikyan

46'▲S. Deblé←▼A. Grigoryan

46'▲Y. Otubanjo←▼T. Dzhikia

59'▲Mimito Biai←▼B. Alcéus

71'▲M. Vareika←▼E. Malakyan

90+3'▲M. Kovalenko←▼V. Gonçalves

Pyunik Yerevan substitutes

DebléOtubanjoBiaiVareikaKovalenkoBratkovAlemãoPetrosyanBuhariMikayelyanUdoHaroyan

Premier League: Gandzasar 1–3 Pyunik Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan beat Gandzasar 3-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Vakulenko (27' o.g.), Y. Otubanjo (66'), J. Bopesu (68'), M. Vareika (90+8').

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.

Gandzasar vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Gandzasar 1–3 Pyunik Yerevan